A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
